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When Oil Peaked, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Download PDF When Oil Peaked, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
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In two earlier books, Hubbert's Peak (2001) and Beyond Oil (2005), the geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes laid out his rationale for concluding that world oil production would continue to follow a bell-shaped curve, with the smoothed-out peak somewhere in the middle of the first decade of this millennium―in keeping with the projections of his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert.
Deffeyes sees no reason to deviate from that prediction, despite the ensuing global recession and the extreme volatility in oil prices associated with it. In his view, the continued depletion of existing oil fields, compounded by shortsighted cutbacks in many exploration-and-development projects, virtually assures that the mid-decade peak in global oil production will never be surpassed.
In When Oil Peaked, he revisits his original forecasts, examines the arguments that were made both for and against them, adds some new supporting material to his overall case, and applies the same mode of analysis to a number of other finite gifts from the Earth: mineral resources that may be also in shorter supply than "flat-Earth" prognosticators would have us believe.
- Sales Rank: #1425818 in Books
- Published on: 2010-09-28
- Released on: 2010-09-28
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.21" h x .44" w x 6.14" l, .79 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 176 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Deffeyes, a geologist and former oil researcher, continues the conversations he began in Hubbert's Peak with this level-headed look at the earthly limits of our natural resources. According to Deffeyes, oil production peaked in 2005; "On a time scale somewhere between one hundred and three hundred years, our civilization has to come around to sustainable and renewable resources. Most energy will be, directly or indirectly, solar." Offering the admittedly unpopular alternatives of uranium and coal until that happens, he discusses means of minimizing dangers and reducing energy consumption; his comparison of the efficiency of various forms of transportation may make readers think again about barges coming from China. And overviews of topics ranging from worldwide metal resources to biofuels leads to a consideration for where natural resources originate. Offering his own take on historical oil prices and the Great Recession, Deffeyes doesn't hide his bias, but presents data to support his arguments. Concluding with recommendations for a better future, the author suggests a market volatility tax and urges readers to create their own vision of what a sustainable future looks like, even while positing two extreme options himself. (Sept.)
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From Booklist
Deffeyes follows up Hubberts Peak (2001) and Beyond Oil (2005) to continue the argument that the world’s known oil supplies have peaked and it’s time to consider new directions. Drawing on research by his colleague, American geologist M. King Hubbert, Deffeyes expands on data showing a bell-shaped curve to world oil production, one that has reached its peak and is declining. Drawing on historical data, Deffeyes reports the bad news that major oil fields are declining in production in contrast to the good news of a string of new finds in Brazil that will require deep and expensive drilling. And while natural gas is promising, geological issues are now compounded by an international financial crisis. He looks at geology, economics, geopolitics, and changes in the oil industry for an overview of how we’ve come to our current state. He looks ahead to developments in renewable energy sources and explores debates about climate change. Although this book is filled with data, charts, and equations, Deffeyes’ writing is highly accessible, and given the importance of the subject matter, readers will welcome the challenge. --Vanessa Bush
Review
“For peak oil devotees, When Oil Peaked is a special treat, an eminently welcome update from a heavyweight within the field . . . And for those who insist on the opinion of a bona fide oil expert, it doesn't get more bona fide than Ken Deffeyes.” ―Frank Kaminski, Energy Bulletin
“Kenneth S. Deffeyes's book Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage was the first serious analysis that revisited M. King Hubbert's theory on peak oil. It was a breakthrough piece of research. His new book continues this tradition of staying way ahead of conventional wisdom by using solid scientific facts. It is a must-read!” ―Matthew R. Simmons, Chairman, Simmons & Company International, and author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
“Kenneth S. Deffeyes got it exactly right in his first pathbreaking books on Peak Oil, educating many thousands of readers about the geological and mathematical basis for forecasts of declining world petroleum production. An avuncular ‘I told you so' is now in order, and Deffeyes delivers it with his usual wry humor, along with equally prescient and informed analyses of prospects for replacing oil with other energy sources, like uranium and natural gas. Everyone who cares about energy and the future of our economy should read this book.” ―Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute
“This book addresses the critical issue of Peak Oil, when production begins to decline thanks to natural depletion. Very readable recollections of the early research into the subject and the personalities of those involved are followed by valuable ideas and recommendations for the future. Despite the serious nature of the subject, a delightful sense of humor permeates the pages. It is essential reading given the central role of oil-based energy in the modern world.” ―Colin J. Campbell, founder and honorary chairman, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
“In the summer of 1958 my path crossed that of M. King Hubbert and Kenneth S. Deffeyes at the Shell Research Laboratory in Bellaire, Texas. As an undergraduate technician in a chemistry lab, I was invisible to these gentlemen, but the buzz that still filled the building from Hubbert's 1956 prediction of a 1970s peak in U.S. oil production caused me to notice them. Now, a half century later, there is not only confirmation of Hubbert's prediction, but also a realization that Deffeyes's prediction of a 2005 peak in world oil production is likely to be true as well. This marvelous book takes us along on that wild ride.” ―Tom Tombrello, Professor of Physics, California Institute of Technology, and former director of research, Schlumberger-Doll Research Center
“Professor Deffeyes was among the very first on the scene carrying the news of our global oil destiny. He brings a disciplined voice of science to a topic that a superstitious public would prefer to deny and ignore.” ―James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency
“strongly expressed and well-argued” ―John R. Coyne, Jr., The Washington Times
“This is another useful book from Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Some of his claims continue to be controversial, but his basic point is beyond reasonable dispute: Oil and other fossil fuels are finite. Continued use of them requires more and more costly extraction and is not sustainable. Someday, before long, the realization that we are on the downward slope of the supply curve will trigger irresistible economic and psychological forces which will accomplish what wars, environmental disasters, transport expenses, and public health epidemics have failed to do--move us to sustainable methods of energy production and use.” ―Representative Rush D. Holt, Jr.
Most helpful customer reviews
21 of 23 people found the following review helpful.
A useful update on the global energy crisis
By Jonathan Lupton
Having read Dr. Deffeyes' previous titles, Hubbert's Peak and Beyond Oil, I enjoyed this new title but was disappointed by a lack of depth. It carries the story forward to 2010, with updates on new developments like the breakthrough in U.S. shale gas production that occurred around 2004, and the economic tumult that followed the 2008 oil price spike. The author predicted that global oil production would peak in 2005, and figures so far have borne him out.
Dr. Deffeyes gives some intriguing inside information from the oil industry. In the heyday of oil exploration, about 1956, there were about 9,000 exploratory "wildcat" wells around the world; by 2005 the figure was down to 2,500. The author admits that his data come from "an unpublished, unverifiable data set." Welcome to the oil business: there is a veil of obscurity, since oil production and reserves are corporate and national secrets. But there's more evidence: the "majors" of oil production, companies like Exxon, Shell and BP, began shrinking their research budgets after about 1980, and also began buying back their stock rather than investing in exploration. Most of the world's oil reserves lie in the hands of national oil companies in places like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Mexico.
There have been two big new recent finds, both offshore, off the coast of Brazil and in the Gulf of Mexico. Huge as the Brazil "subsalt" find is, sizable production is at least a decade away. Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has, er, "gummed up" a bit after the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Neither is likely large enough to offset the overall decline in global oil production.
One of this title's most useful additions is a graph on p. 40 that compares U.S. oil costs as a share of GDP from 1950 to 2010. The cost of oil has hovered in the 1-to-2 percent range most of the time, including the "SUV boom" of the 1990's, but around 1980-82 and in 2008 it exceeded 6 percent. Deffeyes claims, validly I think, that our 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession were really byproducts of soaring fuel prices, but fails to back up his case. He argues in favor of price supports, to encourage companies to undertake the risks of oil and gas exploration in a world of volatile energy prices. What makes good policy is not good politics, and he wisely avoids the "political feasibility" question.
The author concludes by looking into ways to bridge the gap between declining oil reserves and renewable power sources of the future. Coal gasification may have a future not automatically tied to cultures with racial-superiority complexes like Nazi Germany and South Africa. Nuclear power is less dangerous than the public thinks, and radwaste burial is safer than people realize. Natural gas from organically rich shale rocks, while finite, will also help. The author's discussion of climate change is concise and interesting, if a bit shallow. Yet he may be right that geo-engineering will be the ultimate solution.
I can't recommend this author's former titles, Hubbert's Peak and Beyond Oil, highly enough, for anyone with an interest in our energy future. When Oil Peaked is a useful addition, but slightly thin: just 136 pages compared with about 190 each for the former titles. It is nonetheless an affordably-priced addition of fun reading and intriguing insights from an author who has made a compelling case that global oil production is already declining, and our energy-rich lifestyle is changing before our eyes.
12 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Read the prequels
By Nathan L. Wichmann
I have read Deffeyes' books, Hubbert's Peak and Beyond Oil, and HIGHLY recommend his previous books as highly informative and insightful, perhaps the among the most important books I have read in the last 10 year, but this new book adds little to the discussion. It seems to ramble and is not very coherent in making any point. Deffeyes' also wanders into climate science, interpreting all climatology, including 100 year trends, in terms of geology on million year time scales.
In the end, if you have not read his previous books, READ THOSE. If you have read those, there are likely other books on the topic worth reading. This is a quick read because it is so short, but I can't say that I recommend it.
7 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting but disorganized collection of thoughts
By Amazon Customer
Deffeyes is sort of the unofficial intellectual heir to M. King Hubbert's ideas on peak oil. In some of his earlier books, he applied these ideas to the worldwide oil situation and came up with the prediction that worldwide production would peak in the year 2005. He is one of the most oft-quoted authorities on the matter and he gets his authority status both from having been a former colleague of Hubbert and from being an expert in petroleum geology himself. As such, I was highly interested in reading this book which has come out five years after his predicted date for global peak oil. While the book does cover the issue of peak oil, it comes off more as an ad hoc collection of the author's views and ideas on a broad range of topics directly and indirectly related to peak oil including the production of natural gas and precious metals, global warming, the prospects for future energy production and the stock market. Some of the ideas carry the weight of expert opinion while others are little more than layperson guesses. Much of what he says is both interesting and in line with what other authors suggest on various topics; however, there are a couple of shortcomings in my mind. First, some of his musings come very close to being technical observations that might be unclear to people who don't have a background in what he is talking about. Some of his points seemed unclear to me and I felt like I would have to have been an expert or a student in his area of expertise to know instinctively what he was talking about. This is especially true for some of his characterizations of oil production and the charts he provides. The book is very short and I felt like here and there he could have dedicated a bit more space to fleshing out his comments for lay readers. Second, by mixing observations about oil production for which he is genuinely an expert with observations about global warming, the stock market or nuclear energy for which his obviously not an expert, he runs the risk of have people give equal weight to all of his ideas. I am very inclined to believe he's on the right track with his predictions about oil production but I'm not so sure his observations about global warming are worth the paper they are written on. Overall, I have to give the book a moderately positive rating as it is full of interesting ideas and observations that many people may not have seen before and it certainly gives the reader many ideas to ponder. I just wish more effort had been spent in better organizing and developing some of the ideas so they formed a more coherent whole rather than sounding like a checklist of all things this important author has thought about over the last 5 years.
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